- Ble Gandhi eldre eller yngre enn 114 år?
- Hvor gammel ble han?
- Ble Gandhi eldre eller yngre enn 35 år?
- Hvor gammel ble han?
I dette eksempelet vil vi justere oss nedover fra 114 eller oppover fra 35, vi blir påvirket av hvordan spørsmålet er satt opp. Informasjonen man ankrer seg i trenger ikke å ha noe med virkeligheten å gjøre, men påvirker oss selv om.
Det var Daniel Kahneman og Amos Tversky som først konkretisert dette på 1970-tallet. De var opprinnelig uenige om hvordan denne ankringen fungerte, men senere, etter Tversky sin død i 1996, ble det gjort mer forskning og eksperimenter som påviste at begge sin forklaring var rett. Her er et utdrag fra boken Thinking, fast and slow av Daniel Kahneman.
Amos and I once rigged a wheel of fortune. It was marked from 0 to 100, but we had it built so that it would stop only at 10 or 65. We recruited students of the University of Oregon as participants in our experiment. One of us would stand in front of a small group, spin the wheel, and ask them to write down the number on which the wheel stopped, which of course was either 10 or 65. We then asked them two questions:
Is the percentage of African nations among UN embers larger or smaller than the number you just wrote?
What is your best guess of the percentage of African nations in the UN?
The spin of a wheel of fortune – even one that is not rigged – cannot possibly yield useful information about anything, and the participants in our experiment should simply have ignored it. But they did not ignore it. The average estimates of those who saw 10 and 65 were 25 % and 45 %, respectively.
Denne effekten blir også påvirket av hvor mye mentale krefter du har i besluttningsøyeblikket.
Nickolas Epley og Thomas Gilovich har bekreftet at når du justerer deg i forhold til ankeret bruker du din mentale energi, dermed vil vi justerer mindre (bli i nærheten av ankeret) når vi er sliten mentalt. For eksempel i juletider, eksamensperioder eller når du er sulten. Ta beslutninger når du er opplagt!
Ankring er en sterk kraft som ofte blir utnyttet av selgere. Tenk deg en forhandlingssituasjon. Den første prisen som kommer på bordet blir referansepunktet videre i forhandlingene. Derfor er det gunstig å være den første med den innledende prisen. Daniel Kahneman tar for seg denne problemstillingen, og forklarer hva han tenker det er smartest å gjøre.
As you may have experienced when negotiating for the first time in a bazaar, the initial anchor has a powerful effect. My advice to students when I taught negotiations was that if you think the other side has made an outrageous proposal, you should not come back with an equally outrageous counteroffer, creating a gap the will be difficult to bridge in further negotiations. Instead you should make a scene, storm out or threaten to do so, and make clear – to yourself as well as to the other side – that you will not continue the negotiation with that number on the table.
Løsning
Dessverre har de funnet ut at det ikke er så lett å løsrive seg fra denne tendensen. Det er gjort eksperimenter hvor kandidater har på forhånd fått vite at de vil bli eksponert for et anker, men allikevel blitt påvirket av det.
Her er 3 tips.
- Ta viktige besluttninger når du har energi til det, ikke når du er sulten eller har trent.
- List på alle ankrene du kommer på. En tidligere topp i aksjekursen, hvordan et spørsmål blir spurt, etc.
- Finn ut når på dagen du har mest tilgjengelig energi. Er du et morgenmenneske eller foretrekker du sene kvelder? Ta viktige beslutninger på disse tidspunktene.
Nettside om finans, sparing og personlig økonomi. Vårt mål er å bli økonomisk sterke ved å spare penger og investere smart.
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